Markets Analysis

USDJPY forms an ascending wedge; a sign of a move towards dollar-selling ahead of the FOMC?【September 19, 2023】

September 19, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • The forex market is experiencing reduced volatility, with a lack of direction for the dollar leading up to the FOMC.
  • Major announcements, including CPIs and policy rates from key countries, are scheduled for this week, potentially influencing future trends.
  • It’s essential to discern the relative strength of currencies and seek out emerging trends.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the 4-hour chart of the USD/JPY pair, while both highs and lows are ascending, the price range is narrowing, forming an ascending wedge pattern. If the lower boundary of this wedge is breached, there’s potential for increased downward pressure.

Currently, the market anticipates that the FOMC will keep interest rates unchanged, which might intensify dollar-selling movements. However, significant market movements are not expected before the FOMC meeting. The market is in a wait-and-see mode regarding the FOMC outcomes.

[USDJPY / D1]

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the USD/JPY pair, the price continues to consolidate within the Ichimoku cloud. The 240-period moving average is located below the cloud, suggesting that updating the low might take some time. Moreover, the lagging span of the Ichimoku chart is below the candlesticks, with the conversion line also being below the base line.

Given these movements, if the price breaks below the cloud, attention should be paid to breaches below the 240-period moving average and the lower boundary of the wedge. Given the upcoming FOMC meeting, predicting movements is challenging. Therefore, a cautious approach, observing the market for a while, is desired.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

147.35 JPY – 240-period moving average

[USDJPY / H1]

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 70% Buy: 30%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
Minutes of the Australian Monetary Policy Committee Meeting10:30
EU Consumer Price Index18:00
US Building Permits21:30
Canadian Consumer Price Index21:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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