Fundamental Analysis

• U.S. Consumer Confidence Index deteriorates, causing a significant drop in stock prices.
• Concerns arise over stagflation, with inflation and high interest rates occurring simultaneously.
• Focus on whether gold can maintain its support at USD 1900.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for gold, it has broken downwards from the lower line of its triangle formation. This movement can be attributed to the deterioration of the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index. On the support side, there is a strong band around USD 1892.

Furthermore, using Fibonacci expansion for analysis, it is confirmed that USD 1868 corresponds to the 61.8% level. Based on this information, gold’s price movement in October is expected to fluctuate between USD 1850 and USD 1900.

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for gold, the RSI is currently situated around 26, suggesting a potential rebound when it surpasses 30 again. As the trend strengthens, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo’s conversion line often plays the role of a resistance line.

In the short term, a rebound up to USD 1904 is anticipated. Considering the moving average, a recovery up to USD 1908 is also conceivable. However, the overall trend of a stronger dollar remains unchanged, making it appropriate to sell once the price rebounds.

Specifically, the trading strategy is to sell on the bounce. Entry point: USD 1906, stop: USD 1910, target exit point: USD 1894.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

1900 USD – Round number.
1892 USD – Monthly support line.

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD　Sell: 14% Buy: 86%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.