Markets Analysis

EURUSD Rises as Speculation of Additional US Rate Hikes Diminishes【October 11, 2023】

October 11, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Cautious stance on rate hikes emerging from US financial authorities.
  • Probability of rates remaining unchanged in the next FOMC is 60%.
  • Eurodollar continues to climb, focus on whether the falling trendline can be maintained.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for the EURUSD exchange rate, the 24-day moving average currently acts as a clear resistance line. Moreover, the price has recovered to the baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud, and a possible price reversal at this line is being watched closely. As for the RSI, after rebounding at the 30 level, it has continued to rise and is currently around 44.

From this RSI movement, it can be inferred that the downward pressure on the Eurodollar exchange rate has temporarily eased. However, the 24-day moving average and the baseline of the Ichimoku Cloud may serve as strong resistances. Whether these lines are breached will be key in predicting future movements.


Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for the Eurodollar exchange rate, an upward trend is forming with the 10-day moving average serving as a support line. 1.065 USD acts as the most recent high, but this price range has been recognized in the past. If the downtrend continues, there’s a high likelihood of a reversal at this point.

The RSI is hovering around 58. Due to the diminishing speculation of US rate hikes, the dollar continues to weaken. Today, inflation indices from Germany and the US are set to be released, and the FOMC meeting minutes will be announced in the early hours, increasing the potential for high volatility.

The day trade strategy is to sell. Entry point at 1.0648 USD, exit point at 1.0605 USD, with a stop loss at 1.07 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

1.065 USD – Monthly resistance line
1.050 USD – Round number


Market Sentiment

EURUSD Sell: 35% Buy: 65%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
German Consumer Price Index15:00
US Producer Price Index21:30
FOMC Meeting Minutes3:00 (next day)

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.