Markets Analysis

Dollar-Yen Breaks Through 150 JPY, Hits Year-to-Date High【October 26, 2023】

October 26, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • The dollar-yen surpassed 150 JPY, reaching a high of 150.30 JPY.
  • U.S. stock indices declined as U.S. corporate earnings disappointed.
  • Despite the drop in U.S. stocks, there’s no risk aversion to the yen.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The dollar-yen broke out of its range, rising to 150.30 JPY and updating its year-to-date high. It now hovers around the 150 JPY level. Although it had been in a very narrow range, it did not lean towards yen appreciation but gradually tilted upwards. There are some reports of revised projections from the Bank of Japan, but the fundamental trend is expected to continue rising.

When it reaches the 150 JPY level, there are speculations of market intervention. Although this could make it harder for the rate to increase, it’s expected to aim for 150.90 JPY. The U.S. economy remains robust, and the dollar is very strong. The extent to which the yen will depreciate in the future is a focal point.


Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for the dollar-yen, it entered the 150 JPY level and swiftly rose to 150.30 JPY after triggering stop-loss orders. The U.S. economy remains robust despite high-interest rates, and there’s speculation of further rate hikes.

The RSI is hovering around the 60s, showing no signs of decline. In the future, 149.95 JPY might act as a support line. While 152.80 JPY corresponds to the 100% Fibonacci expansion, the primary target is expected around 151.95 JPY.

For day trading, considering a contrarian position around 150.50 JPY might be favorable. Entry at 150.53 JPY, settlement at 150.10 JPY, and a stop at 150.80 JPY is the strategy.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

150.90 JPY – Major resistance line
150.08 JPY – Pivot point


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 79% Buy: 21%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
EU Policy Rate Announcement21:15
U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders21:30
U.S. Gross Domestic Product21:30
European Central Bank Press Conference21:45

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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