Markets Analysis

USD/JPY Falls Significantly, Reaching a One-Month Low【November 21, 2023】

November 21, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Microsoft Announces Hiring of Former OpenAI CEO Altman
  • US Stock Market Rises Significantly, While the End of US Interest Rate Hikes Strengthens the Dollar’s Decline
  • The Yen Strengthens, USD/JPY Falls to 148.30 JPY

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analysis of the USD/JPY daily chart reveals an entry into the Ichimoku Cloud, where price consolidation frequently occurs, requiring time before a breakout. A movement below the -2σ of the Bollinger Bands was observed, but a slight rebound is also noticeable.

If the -2σ line acts as a resistance line, it could form a band walk, potentially accelerating the downward trend. However, a rebound is expected even if it momentarily reaches the -3σ line at around 147.79 JPY.

While considering the acceleration of the downward trend, one should be cautious of an oversold market.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analysis of the USD/JPY 1-hour chart shows movements below 148.50 JPY as technically interesting. RSI is rising with each new low, indicating divergence, but whether this signifies an upward shift remains unclear.

After yesterday’s significant movements, today might see a ranging market around the 148 JPY level. While temporary adjustments are possible, the aim is to effectively use the downward trend.

The day trading strategy is to sell on rallies. The entry point is set at 149.00 JPY, target profit at 148.60 JPY, and stop-loss at 149.35 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming resistance lines to consider:

148.80 JPY – Major resistance zone
148.50 JPY – Major resistance zone


Market Sentiment

USDJPY – Sell: 45%, Buy: 55%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
Minutes of the Australian Monetary Policy Meeting9:30
Canadian Consumer Price Index22:30
US Existing Home SalesMidnight 0:00
Speech by Lagarde, ECB PresidentFollowing 1:00
FOMC MinutesFollowing 4:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.