USD/JPY Rebounds, Excessive Expectations for U.S. Rate Cut Lead to Short Covering【December 5, 2023】
December 05, 2023
Markets Analysis
目次
Fundamental Analysis
- Gold Hits Record Highs but Retreats, Falling Below $2,030
- In New York trading hours, the Forex market sees a broad rise in the dollar
- USD/JPY is influenced by Fibonacci retracement
USDJPY Technical Analysis
Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY, the overall trend is downward. However, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level is acting as a support, leading to a temporary rebound.
Premature expectations for U.S. rate cuts next year have led to short covering, strengthening the dollar. USD/JPY may rebound to just before 148 JPY.
The underlying downward trend remains, and selling on rallies, considering the Fibonacci retracement, appears to be the appropriate strategy.
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20231205USDJPYDAY.png)
Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)
Analysis of the 1-hour chart for the USD/JPY pair. Both the 240 and 72 moving averages are trending downward, maintaining a bearish trend. Selling on the rebound appears to be an effective strategy.
Focus is on whether it will break below the recent low of 146.35 JPY, with a technical forecast suggesting a drop to around 145.25 JPY after breaking into the 146 JPY range. At 144.50 JPY, the 50% Fibonacci retracement and a monthly support line coincide, and a significant rebound should also be considered.
As a day trading strategy, consider selling around 147.30 JPY, settling at 145.65 JPY, and setting a stop loss at 147.50 JPY.
Support and Resistance Lines
Upcoming resistance lines to consider:
148.40 JPY – 23.6% Fibonacci Retracement
146.27 JPY – 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20231205USDJPY1H.png)
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 51%, Buy: 49%
Today’s Important Economic Indicators
Economic Indicators and Events | JST (Japan Standard Time) |
Australian Policy Interest Rate | 12:30 |
U.S. Services Sector Purchasing Managers’ Index | 23:45 |
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index | 24:00 |
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.