Markets Analysis

Bank of Japan Does Not Indicate Exit Strategy, USD/JPY Temporarily Reaches 144 JPY【December 20, 2023】

December 20, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Bank of Japan decides to continue its large-scale monetary easing policy, dispelling some expectations for a rate hike
  • US Federal Reserve officials caution against expectations for rate cuts, but the market anticipates five rate cuts next year
  • Nasdaq updates its highest value, S&P 500 also approaches its peak

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of the USD/JPY exchange rate. The Bank of Japan has decided to continue its large-scale monetary easing, and the governor did not indicate an exit strategy, tilting towards yen selling and USD/JPY rising. However, a sharp rise like before is unlikely, as the US Federal Reserve leans towards rate cuts from next year onwards.

Currently, the 200-day moving average is acting as a resistance line, and the conversion line of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo is also a resistance line. Therefore, movements in the late 143 JPY range are observed. Given the Bank of Japan’s hesitant stance on rate hikes, a fall below 140 JPY by the end of the year is unlikely. The focus will now be on the battle around the 200-day moving average.

[USDJPY/ D1]

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of the USD/JPY exchange rate. Currently, USD/JPY is in an upward trend, with the base line of Ichimoku Kinko Hyo acting as a support line. There is a 240 moving average on the upside, and the market is searching for the next direction.

RSI analysis shows it is above 50 but suggests a potential reversal of the upward trend. If the RSI clearly falls below 50, a renewed downward trend may strengthen. Currently, from a broader perspective, the downward trend continues, making short selling effective.

Day trading strategy involves short selling, entry at 144.35–144.50 JPY, take profit at 143.50 JPY, and stop at 145 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming resistance lines to consider:

144.50 JPY… 50% Fibonacci retracement
140.95 JPY… Recent low

[USDJPY/ H1]

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 43%, Buy: 57%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
UK Consumer Price Index16:00
US Consumer Confidence IndexMidnight
US Crude Oil InventoryNext 0:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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