Markets Analysis

USD/JPY Rises, Strong US Dollar Influence Persists【January 4, 2024】

January 04, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • The minutes of the US FOMC suggest a rate cut policy during 2024
  • US job openings decrease, and manufacturing activity contracts, cooling the US economy
  • USD/JPY temporarily reaches 143.70 JPY, but the 240-day moving average line poses a barrier

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY. A breakout above the descending trendline is confirmed, with the 240-day moving average line acting as resistance. 2024 started with a stronger USD, defying expectations of a weaker dollar.
143.50 JPY is a key focus for future movement, and whether it can break above this level is noteworthy. Despite the suggested rate cuts in 2024, movements towards a weaker dollar are limited.
RSI is hovering around 42, with the focus on whether it can exceed 50.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USD/JPY. An upward trend continues, rising to 143.70 JPY, but resistance is strong above this level. A pullback for profit-taking is observed ahead of significant daily resistance lines.
After reaching 70, the RSI fell to 58, and a breakout below the trendline drawn on the RSI suggests a potential drop to the 240-day moving average line. Currently, while the dollar is weakening, the yen is also weakening. In the short term, a rebound for buying is considered.
Day trading strategy involves considering a dip-buying at 142.30 JPY, settling at 142.85 JPY, and setting a stop loss at 141.75 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming resistance lines to consider:

143.70 JPY – Recent high


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 59%, Buy: 41%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
German Consumer Price Index22:00
US ADP Employment Report22:15
US Unemployment Insurance Claims22:30
Crude Oil InventoryMidnight

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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