USD/JPY Seeks Direction, U.S. Employment Figures Exceed Market Expectations【January 8, 2024】

January 08, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • U.S. employment statistics exceed market expectations, causing volatility in the Dollar Index
  • USD/JPY approaches 146 JPY temporarily before falling back, currently around 144.50 JPY
  • Employment numbers increase, but U.S. manufacturing economic index weakens

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USD/JPY. Using the Fibonacci retracement, it’s observed that the price reacts at the 50% level. 146 JPY corresponds to this 50% level, serving as an important threshold. Whether this level is breached or not will determine future trends.

Support lines also exist around the 38.2% retracement, suggesting a strong lower limit for the market. The RSI is at 48, indicating a balance between bullish and bearish pressures. Currently, the trend towards a stronger dollar is somewhat pausing.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USD/JPY. A reaction is seen at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, indicating a strong lower limit below 144.30 JPY. The RSI is hovering around 53, suggesting the next direction will depend on whether it falls below 50 or rebounds.

After reaching a high near 146 JPY, a large bearish candle appeared, indicating significant selling. If U.S. interest rate cut speculations rise, USD/JPY may tend to move downward.

Considering a short-term short position. After confirming a break below 144.65 JPY, initiate a new sell; the settlement target is 143.75 JPY, with a stop loss at 145 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming resistance lines to consider:

146.65 JPY – 23.6% price in Fibonacci retracement
144.40 JPY – Important price level on a monthly basis


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 57%, Buy: 43%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
EU Unemployment Rate19:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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