Gold Declines as US Economy Remains Solid, March Rate Cut Probability Falls Below 50%【January 25, 2024】

January 25, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Bank of Canada Keeps Interest Rates Unchanged, Suggests End of Rate Hikes
  • US Economy Continues to Show Strength, Probability of March FOMC Rate Cut Drops Below 50%
  • Focus on Economic Indicators such as US GDP and Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analysis of the daily gold price chart shows a forming triangle with decreasing highs and increasing lows. Gold faces downward pressure as the probability of a US rate cut decreases. Key support lines at USD 2,016 are broken, with USD 2,006 and USD 1,998 expected as the next support levels.
The 90-day moving average is noticed around USD 2,001, with buy limit orders expected below USD 2,000. Market sentiment is evenly split between buyers and sellers at 50%, which could trigger significant fluctuations if the balance is disrupted.
The RSI dropping from 50 to 47 is also significant.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analysis of the 1-hour gold price chart reveals that gold, previously supported by the 90 moving average (MA), fell below it yesterday, triggering stop losses and dropping from USD 2,016 to USD 2,013.
Currently rebounding at the -2σ line of the Bollinger Bands, it may eventually fall to USD 2,006. Important support levels at USD 2,006, USD 2,001, USD 2,000, and USD 1,998 are expected to provide some resistance.
For day trading, consider a contrarian entry at USD 1998, with a target at USD 2,006 and a stop loss at USD 1,991.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming significant support and resistance lines:

2006 USD : Monthly support line
1998 USD : Historical support line


Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 50%, Buy: 50%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
ECB Policy Interest Rate Announcement22:15
US GDP22:30
ECB President’s Press Conference22:45
US New Home Sales0:00 Midnight

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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