Gold Rises, Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged and Denies Early Rate Cuts【February 1, 2024】
February 01, 2024
Markets Analysis
目次
Fundamental Analysis
- Fed decides to keep interest rates on hold; Chairman Powell rules out early rate cuts
- Gold rose to $2,054 at one point, but remained around $2,039.
- U.S. stock indexes have fallen sharply, and high interest rates are expected to continue for some time
Gold Technical Analysis
Analyze the gold daily chart. Gold continues to rise while maintaining its uptrend line. The cloud ceiling price of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo became a resistance line, and the price fell again. It is currently moving in the clouds and is in a scuffle. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell has ruled out an early rate cut, but has acknowledged that discussions have begun, and no rate hikes are expected.
ADP employment statistics were lower than market expectations, suggesting a slowdown in the US labor market. Therefore, we expect that gold will continue to rise in the medium to long term. We expect the near-term resistance to be at $2,065. We will also be keeping a close eye on the dollar index and will be keeping an eye on this week’s U.S. employment statistics.
[Gold/Daily]
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyze the gold hourly chart. $2,039 is a price range that is considered on a monthly basis, and is an important price for this month. Although there is a high probability that the US interest rate will be lowered, the timing of the actual rate cut may be later than expected. Technically, the price is expected to continue rising slightly for some time, following the clouds of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo.
There is an awareness of the uptrend line, and there is a possibility that there are many buy limits in the first half of $2,030. The RSI is 52, continuing a slightly upward trend.
My day trading policy is to buy on the edge. Entry is in the low $2,030s, settlement is at $2,043, and stop is at $2,027.
support/resistance lines
The support and resistance lines that should be considered from now on are as follows.
$2054…Weekly resistance line
[Gold/1 hour]
Market Sentiment
XAUUSD Sell: 62% Buy: 38%
Today’s important economic indicators
| Economic indicators and events | Japan time |
| OPEC meeting | 19：00 |
| EU consumer price index | 19：00 |
| UK policy interest rate | 21：00 |
| Comments from the Governor of the Bank of England | 23：15 |
| US ISM Manufacturing Employment Index | Midnight (00:00) |
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.