Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

• The dollar/yen exchange rate remains at the 148 yen level, with slow movements.
• Pay attention to the Bank of Japan Deputy Governor’s speech; will there be any clues to lifting negative interest rates?
• US stock indexes rise, S&P 500 approaches the $5,000 mark

Dollar Yen technical analysis

Analyze the daily chart of USD/JPY. The dollar/yen pair continues to move in a direction that is difficult to discern. Looking at the dollar index chart, we expected the dollar to break above the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud and strengthen, but the dollar index has fallen back to the upper limit of the cloud. Today, the movement of the dollar-yen is likely to change depending on whether the trend of dollar appreciation becomes stronger again.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is hovering around 148 yen, and the movement is slowing down. The Bank of Japan’s Deputy Governor gave a speech today, which is attracting attention from the market as it may provide clues to ending negative interest rates. If there is any comment regarding the lifting of negative interest rates, volatility is likely to increase. The yen is expected to appreciate if it comments that negative interest rates will be lifted soon, and the yen depreciates if it shows a cautious stance that it will continue to monitor the data.

We would like to pay attention to the dollar/yen price range of 147.53 yen on the downside and 148.70 yen on the upside.

[Dollar Yen/Daily]

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the hourly chart of the dollar yen, it is supported by the 240 moving average and has stopped its decline. Volatility is decreasing and we are currently searching for the next material. Having passed through the clouds of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, it is now under pressure from both above and below, unable to move.

The RSI is at 47, so it seems that a slightly downward trend is prevailing. If the price breaks below the 240 moving average, there is a possibility of a significant drop to the lower 147 yen range. At the time of writing, the dollar is weakening.

The overall outlook is for an upward trend, so I would like to buy on the upside. Specifically, the buy entry is 147.25 yen, the settlement is 147.60 yen, and the stop is 146.95 yen.

support/resistance lines

The support and resistance lines that should be considered from now on are as follows.

148.88 yen… Latest high price

147.65 yen…240 moving average line

[Dollar yen/1 hour chart]

Market sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 64% Buy: 36%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.