Markets Analysis

Gold Falls Below 2000 USD as Speculation of US Rate Cut Recedes【February 15, 2024】

February 15, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • The US CPI Surprises Market Expectations, Leading Gold to Fall Below 2000 USD
  • Gold declined from around 2030 USD to near 1990 USD
  • Gold forms a range around 1990 USD

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of Gold, it broke below the support line of 2009 USD, falling to around 1990 USD. The highs are decreasing, suggesting increased selling pressure. Additionally, the RSI is at 42, indicating a bearish trend.

The next major support level is around 1980 USD, with the possibility of further decline. The main factor behind this is the strengthening of the dollar due to the higher-than-expected US CPI, with expectations of prolonged high-interest rates in the background.

Although there was a pause yesterday, if there’s another instance of dollar strength, Gold is likely to decline. Tomorrow’s focus will be on the US Producer Price Index.

[XAUUSD/ D1]

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of Gold, buying interest is strong below 1985 USD, leading to rebounds. Looking at the RSI, it has recovered to 41. Attention should be paid to whether it drops as it approaches 50 on the RSI. If it does drop, the bearish trend could strengthen again, potentially falling towards the support zone around 1980 USD.

Today’s day trading strategy is to sell on rallies. Expecting a drop near 2001 USD, consider entry around 1998 USD. If it goes above 2003 USD, consider stopping and observing. Set the settlement at 1980 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

The support-resistance lines to consider are as follows:

2001 USD: Major resistance
1978 USD: Previous support

[XAUUSD/ H1]

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 32% Buy: 68%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
Japanese GDP8:50
Australian Employment Statistics9:30
UK GDP16:00
US Retail Sales22:30
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index22:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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