Gold Rebounds, Sensitive to US Interest Rate Trends【February 19, 2024】

February 19, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • US CPI exceeds market expectations, pushing back the timing of interest rate hikes further
  • Some experts point to the possibility of additional rate hikes by the Fed, advising to stay tuned to the news
  • Tensions in the Middle East, concerns over conflicts between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, it has been on a three-day rise after hitting a low of 1984 USD. The weekend closing price was at 2014 USD. The price has stopped right near the conversion line of the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo, serving as a resistance line.

The RSI is at 47, drawing attention to whether it will fall again once it reaches around 50.

Looking at the downside, the conversion line of the monthly Ichimoku Kinko Hyo at 1972 USD and the 200-day moving average at 1965 USD are considered quite strong supports. It depends on how far the US dollar will strengthen. Needless to say, if the next Fed action includes additional rate hikes, the impact will be significant.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold, drawing the Fibonacci retracement shows that it is currently moving around the 50% level, which is halfway. The 200 moving average lies ahead, suggesting a possible pullback sell situation.

The 200 moving average has been strongly regarded in past markets. This time, a fallback is anticipated. However, since the RSI is around 61, it would be ideal to aim for a moment closer to 70.

The day trading strategy is to sell on a pullback near the 200 moving average, expecting prices in the early 2020 USD range. The settlement is around 2001 USD, with a stop at 2030 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

Upcoming significant support and resistance lines:

2014.30 USD: The conversion line of the daily Ichimoku Kinko Hyo


Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 57% Buy: 43%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
Canada & US holiday

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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