EURUSD Recovers Upward Trend, Eyes on U.S. PCE Price Index and Officials’ Speeches【February 29, 2024】

February 29, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • EURUSD has surpassed the 240-day moving average line, and the RSI has recovered to 50.
  • Today, the U.S. PCE Price Index is scheduled for release, with the market focusing on this inflation indicator.
  • Early tomorrow, speeches from Federal Reserve officials are scheduled, with U.S. interest rate policy in focus.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for EURUSD. EURUSD momentarily broke below the descending trend line, appearing to fall. However, it has now risen above the trend line again, and yesterday, the baseline of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo acted as a support line. It has also surpassed the 240-day moving average, leading to a directionless market situation.

Today’s U.S. PCE Price Index is a significant inflation indicator and is under scrutiny. The previous CPI and PPI both exceeded market expectations, significantly delaying the timing of the Fed’s rate cut. If tonight’s PCE Price Index also exceeds expectations, the rate cut in June could be in doubt. The immediate resistance line is around 1.088 USD.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for EURUSD. EURUSD experienced a drop yesterday, falling about 70 Pips to the vicinity of 1.08 USD. Currently, the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo cloud is acting as a resistance zone, leading to an unsettled market. The RSI is above 50, but it appears to be forming a return peak.

It is the end of the month, so there may be position adjustments.

The day trading stance is to sell. The target for settlement is around 1.0815 USD. The stop is set at the recent high of 1.0846 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

The following are the support and resistance lines to consider:

1.0866 USD – Monthly resistance line


Market Sentiment

EURUSD Sell: 63% Buy: 37%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
Japan Retail Sales8:50
Australia Retail Sales9:30
Bank of Japan Core CPI14:00
Germany Retail Sales16:00
Switzerland GDP17:00
U.S. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index22:30
Canada GDP22:30
FOMC Member CommentsNext 0:50
FOMC Member CommentsNext 3:15

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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