Markets Analysis

USDJPY Movement Unremarkable, ADP and Fed Chair’s Congressional Testimony in Focus【March 6, 2024】

March 06, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Attention is on the U.S. ADP Employment Report and Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony.
  • U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index Deteriorates.
  • USDJPY is in a range-bound market, with a wait-and-see attitude prevailing.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY, the pair is moving within a range, showing no significant movements. Yesterday, it briefly fell to the 149 JPY level but was bought back up to the 150 JPY level, likely due to the worsening U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing Index.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to fall, with the RSI values decreasing continuously. A divergence is occurring, suggesting a potential adjustment movement. This could lead to a stronger downward trend for USDJPY as well.

Today, the U.S. ADP Employment Report and Chairman Powell’s Congressional Testimony are scheduled. If the Fed Chair remains cautious about cutting rates, given the strong upward trend in stock prices, the momentum of the decline could intensify. It’s worth considering a scenario where USDJPY breaks lower.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USDJPY, the pair continues in a range-bound market, currently moving around the lower range band of 150 JPY. U.S. stock prices may adjust downward, possibly exerting downward pressure on USDJPY.

However, major movements are expected after the NY session with the ADP Employment Report and the Fed Chair’s Congressional Testimony. If it falls, it could go down to 149.20 JPY. If Mr. Powell shows a cautious stance on rate cuts, dollar buying could strengthen, potentially targeting the high of 150.80 JPY.

The day trading approach is to wait and see. After ADP and the congressional testimony, the strategy is to play for short-term scalps based on the movements.

Support and Resistance Lines

The following are support and resistance lines to consider:

148.40 JPY: Daily Ichimoku Cloud Baseline


Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 67% Buy: 33%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
Australian GDP9:30
UK Budget Speech19:00
U.S. ADP Employment Report22:15
Canadian Policy Interest Rate Announcement23:45
Fed Chair CommentsMidnight
FOMC Member CommentsNext Day 2:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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