Markets Analysis

USDJPY Continues to Rise, Market Prices in Leaks About BOJ Meeting【March 18, 2024】

March 18, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Reports of negative interest rate policy termination at BOJ meeting emerge
  • USDJPY market maintains rising trend, negative interest rate termination priced in
  • Shift in focus to this week’s Fed’s dot plot announcement

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY, it rebounded from the 200-day moving average and rose from 146 to the early 149s. Last week, reports on the termination of negative interest rates at the BOJ meeting surfaced frequently, making it almost certain that the BOJ will terminate its negative interest rate policy, and market interest has shifted to the Fed’s dot plot.

USDJPY faces resistance at 149.18 JPY, which is 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level. Breaking above this range could lead to a surge up to around 150.33 JPY. However, this price range could also represent the last chance for a return sell, potentially leading to intense battles.

USDJPY has broken above the Ichimoku cloud, and the daily RSI stands at 52, indicating a rising trend.

[USDJPY/ D1]

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of USDJPY, it is moving in the early 149s, with 149.18 JPY acting as resistance. This level is also a significant past milestone, likely making it a strong resistance zone.

Overall, the trend is upwards. A decrease in the expected number of US rate cuts is anticipated, leading to a stronger dollar. It’s best to avoid ill-timed contrarian bets.

For day trading, avoid entering around 149.18 JPY. Instead, adopt a dip-buying strategy below this level, preferring to enter buys in the late 148s. If 149.18 JPY is surpassed clearly and sharply, wait for the market to settle before dip-buying around 149.20 JPY.

Support and Resistance Lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider are:

150.33 JPY: Weekly resistance line

149.18 JPY: 61.8% Fibonacci level

[USDJPY/ H1]

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 66% Buy: 34%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
EU Consumer Price Index19:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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