Gold Reaches All-Time High, Aiming for the 2300 USD Range But Overheating is a Concern【April 1, 2024】

April 01, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • The Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve, Powell, commented that there is no rush to lower interest rates, showing a cautious stance.
  • The Easter holiday ends today, volatility may increase from tomorrow.
  • Gold hits the +2σ line of the Bollinger Bands.

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

The price of gold has updated its all-time high, significantly surpassing the previous high of 2222 USD, indicating an upward trend according to Dow Theory.

When plotting the Fibonacci expansion on the weekly chart, the 100% line is located around 2278 USD, which requires attention. Additionally, the daily Bollinger Bands show the current price slightly above the +2σ line, suggesting the possibility of a fallback.

Analysis of the ADX shows a current value of 44, with +DI at 32, indicating a strong upward trend. Furthermore, the MACD suggests the histogram may surpass the MACD line again in the future.

With the +3σ line of the Bollinger Bands at 2260 USD, exceeding this level could increase the risk of a fallback. Therefore, investors currently holding positions might consider this a good time for profit-taking.

Various technical indicators suggest a strong upward trend in the gold market, but also hint at the possibility of a short-term correction, warranting cautious trading.


Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analysis of the 1-hour chart of gold shows an uptrend opening with a gap, starting from a high of 2245 USD. Despite the Chairman of the Federal Reserve’s consistent stance on not rushing interest rate cuts, factors such as the PCE price index meeting expectations continue to apply upward pressure.

However, the ADX is below 30, and the histogram is below the MACD. Today is the last day of the Easter holiday, with markets in Europe, Australia, and Hong Kong closed, leading to reduced trading volume in gold.

The day trading strategy considers buying at deep dips. If it reaches the 2220 USD range, consider entering a buy. The settlement is around 2260 USD, with a stop loss at 2215 USD.

Support and Resistance Lines

The following are support and resistance lines to consider:

2278 USD – Daily Fibonacci 100% price range

2260 USD – Daily Bollinger Band +3σ line


Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 69%, Buy: 31%

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
European, Australian, and Hong Kong stock markets closed
Bank of Japan Short-Term Economic Survey08:50
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI23:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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