Fundamental Analysis

• The Chairman of the Federal Reserve commented that “a rate cut within the year is appropriate”
• Gold reaches an all-time high, touching the 2300USD level
• The U.S. ADP Employment Report exceeded market expectations, causing the USD to fluctuate widely

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the daily USDJPY chart, the currency pair continues to trade within a range. Following the ADP Employment Report results, it rose to 151.95JPY but did not reach the 152JPY level. The Ichimoku Cloud’s Conversion Line is located near 151.50JPY, and in recent days, it has not broken below 151.50JPY.

The timing of currency intervention remains a major focus, with potential interventions if it reaches the 152JPY to 153JPY range.

The market will not remain in a range forever, so there may be attempts to test whether intervention occurs. Fundamentals are leaning towards a weaker JPY and stronger USD, warranting a wait-and-see approach.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour USDJPY chart, the 90-period moving average is being closely watched and reacted to. The overall analysis indicates that lows are gradually making higher lows. Market sentiment analysis shows an increase in traders holding short positions, suggesting a strong resistance around the 152JPY level.

Reaching the 152JPY level could lead to speculation of currency intervention, making it difficult to enter long positions aggressively. However, there is a belief that attempts to test the 152JPY level could occur at some point.

Historical trends suggest anticipating intervention if it breaks above the 152JPY level and surges, likely occurring as it approaches 153JPY.

The day trading approach is challenging, but considers contrarian short entries as it approaches 152JPY, aiming for gradual profits through scalping. Caution is advised as surpassing the 152JPY level could lead to a surge.

Support/Resistance lines

The following are key support and resistance levels to consider:

152.76JPY – Weekly Pivot Point

151.50JPY – Daily Ichimoku Conversion Line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY: Sell: 76% Buy: 24%

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*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.