Fundamental Analysis

• USDJPY is moving within a narrow range in the 154 JPY area, with dip-buying occurring when the price falls
• Despite concerns about a strong USD expressed at the G20, the market was largely unaffected
• Market sensitivity to the stances of Iran and Israel continues, with ongoing attention needed for the Middle East situation

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of USDJPY, the currency pair is sticking close to 155 JPY, exhibiting a ‘Tombo’ candlestick pattern with a long lower wick. This pattern suggests the presence of selling pressure around the psychological milestone of 155 JPY, but also indicates strong buying interest. Currently, USDJPY has yet to successfully break through 155 JPY.

Comments from various national authorities on curbing a high USD or a weak JPY have been frequent, but actual currency intervention seems challenging. Going forward, it will be crucial to pay close attention to statements regarding US interest rate policies, which could significantly sway the direction of USDJPY.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 4-hour chart of USDJPY, the 100% Fibonacci expansion level is at 155.67 JPY, suggesting potential for further rises from the current price levels. The 61.8% level at 153.63 JPY is active, indicating high reliability of the expansion.

If USDJPY breaks above 155 JPY, the next target could be 155.50 JPY. However, vigilance is always necessary regarding the potential for currency intervention by national authorities.

For day trading strategies, considering dip-buying around the early 154 JPY levels could be advantageous. A specific entry point would be 153.90 JPY, with take-profit set at 154.45 JPY and a stop-loss at 153.75 JPY.

Support/Resistance lines

Upcoming support and resistance lines to consider:

154.78 JPY – Recent high

153.12 JPY – Range low

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 78%, Buy: 22%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (USDCHF)

USD to Swiss Franc faces technical challenges as it approaches the 200-week moving average. Fundamentally, while the Swiss National Bank is leaning towards rate cuts, the Federal Reserve is delaying rate reductions, creating a favorable environment for potential rises.

Major resistance zones are at 0.9150 USD and 0.9170 USD, marking crucial points for potential breakouts in the future.

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*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.