USDJPY Market Fluctuations: Possible Foreign Exchange Intervention?【April 30, 2024】
April 30, 2024
Markets Analysis
目次
Fundamental Analysis
- USDJPY briefly reached a high of 160.22JPY, then plummeted to the 154JPY range
- Minister of Finance Kanda did not comment on the possibility of intervention
- Despite ongoing US-Japan interest rate differences, a retest of the 160JPY level may occur
USDJPY technical analysis
Analysis of USDJPY’s daily candlestick chart indicates volatility, with a spike to the low 160JPYs from 158JPY in the morning, followed by a 600 pips drop to 154.5JPY due to strong JPY buying in the afternoon. This pattern strongly suggests the possibility of an intervention. A high-price bearish candlestick formation occurred, and although prices have returned within the rising channel, a shift to a stronger JPY seems unlikely.
Market recognition of intervention might encourage speculators to target a weaker JPY. Future focus will be on whether it breaks below 155.50JPY towards a stronger JPY. However, significant fluctuations may lead to less predictable market movements.
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20240430USDJPYDAY-1024x773.png)
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
USDJPY analysis on the 1-hour chart shows a rise to 160.20JPY followed by a sharp drop to 154.48JPY. Despite approaching the 200 moving average, a shift to a stronger JPY trend is unlikely.
Fundamentally, the existing interest rate difference between the US and Japan suggests a buying strategy on dips. The key focus will be on whether it falls below 150.50JPY.
An ideal day trading strategy would be to enter a buy at 155.75JPY, set a stop loss at 155.40JPY, and target a take-profit at 157JPY.
However, potential foreign exchange interventions and unpredictable market changes require flexibility.
Support/Resistance lines
Future considerations for support and resistance lines include:
Recent High: 160.22JPY
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20240430USDJPY1H-1024x773.png)
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 76%, Buy: 24%
Featured Currency Pair of the Week (EURCHF)
While USDJPY and other cross Yen pairs were highly volatile, the Euro-Swiss Franc remained largely unaffected. It slightly retreated after reaching a high of 0.980CHF, lacking momentum for further rise. A drop to 0.9680CHF could be possible.
The trajectory will depend on whether it surpasses 0.9850CHF or falls to 0.9680CHF. Monitoring the situation is advisable.
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic indicators and events | Japan time |
Japanese Unemployment Rate | 08:50 |
Australian Retail Sales | 10:30 |
German GDP | 17:00 |
Canadian GDP | 21:30 |
US Consumer Confidence Index | 23:00 |
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.