Markets Analysis

EURUSD Outlook: Will the Euro Surge as Dollar Selling Intensifies?【May 14, 2024】

May 14, 2024

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Consumer inflation expectations in the US are rising, while the labor market shows signs of slowing
  • US economic indicators are generally deteriorating, accelerating dollar selling against all currencies except the yen
  • The US Consumer Price Index is awaited, with potential volatility following the release

EURUSD technical analysis

EURUSD is finding resistance at the 240-day and 72-day moving averages. It has surpassed the neckline, indicating an upward trend. The descending trendline, respected at least three times in the past, will be crucial to watch. A clear break above this trendline could provide momentum to target 1.09USD and the round number of 1.10USD.

Analysis of MACD shows the histogram crossing above zero, and it is also above the signal line. Today, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be announced, which could impact EURUSD as Germany is the largest economy in the EU. This is an event to watch.


Day trading strategy (1 hour)

EURUSD’s 1-hour chart shows the 24-hour moving average acting as support. Although it once dropped to the 240-hour moving average, it has risen again aiming for 1.08USD. It is likely to test the daily descending trendline soon.

Breaking the daily trendline might be challenging in the short term. Also, a divergence in MACD is interesting to note. Today, the US Producer Price Index is due, and tomorrow the US Consumer Price Index will be released. EURUSD could be prone to significant fluctuations.

The day trading strategy favors selling on rebounds, particularly near the trendline. However, positions should be cleared before and after the PPI announcement. It is wise to avoid unpredictable markets.

Support/Resistance lines

Future support and resistance lines to consider:

1.0835USD – Monthly resistance line.


Market Sentiment

EURUSD Sell: 78% Buy: 22%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (AUDNZD)

Analysis of the AUDNZD daily chart shows that upward momentum is fading, as discussed in our video. While there has been a rebound off the 24-day moving average, momentum is weak. Divergence in MACD suggests that if it falls below the 24-day moving average, it could drop to around 1.09NZD.

If it breaks below the 24-day moving average, it might be a good market to sell. However, AUDNZD has low volatility, so profit margins might be limited. From a long-term perspective, buying on dips could be a strategy, although swap points turning negative require caution with long-term holdings.

Today’s important economic indicators

Economic indicators and eventsJapan time
Japan Corporate Goods Price Index8:50
UK Employment Statistics15:00
German Consumer Price Index15:00
OPEC Monthly Report20:00
US Producer Price Index21:30
Remarks by Fed Chair Powell23:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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