Fundamental Analysis

• The BOJ policy meeting is being held, and historically, the yen tends to weaken on the days of these meetings
• The US PPI fell short of expectations, indicating a slowdown in US inflation
• Gold faces selling pressure, dropping to the 2300 USD range

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the daily USDJPY chart, a triangle pattern is forming with the upper boundary at 157.70 JPY and rising lows. Today’s BOJ policy meeting is expected to discuss reducing the amount of government bond purchases, but a significant reduction is unlikely.

Historically, USDJPY tends to weaken during BOJ policy meetings. The focus will be on whether it can break through 157.70 JPY. It has rebounded from the 28-day moving average, and if it breaks above 157.70 JPY, it could target 158.25 JPY.

Attention will also be on whether Governor Ueda will mention future interest rate outlooks during his press conference.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, USDJPY fluctuates repeatedly, reacting to economic indicators. The BOJ policy meeting is scheduled today, with no changes in policy rates expected. Consequently, some overseas investors anticipating this may sell yen, leading to potential yen weakness today. A reduction in the amount of government bond purchases is expected to be gradual.

Focus on whether it can break through 157.70 JPY. Trade cautiously during Tokyo hours. In the broader perspective, a weakening yen means picking up at the lows carefully.

Support/Resistance lines

The following support and resistance lines should be considered going forward:

157.70 JPY – Recent High

Market Sentiment

USDJPY – Sell: 60% Buy: 40%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (GBPNZD)

The GBP to NZD is rising. It is moving near the 200-day moving average, determining its direction. It has broken the weekly uptrend line, indicating a slight pound depreciation. The recent low is around 2.06 USD. Pay attention to whether it breaks 2.06 NZD, with the 200-day moving average acting as resistance.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.