Fundamental Analysis

• President of the New York Federal Reserve Comments “The Economy is Moving in the Right Direction”
• U.S. Retail Sales See Slight Increase, Expectations for a Soft Landing
• Global Central Banks Increase Gold Holdings, Supporting Gold Prices

USDJPY technical analysis

USDJPY continues to rise slightly. It is currently trading in the high 157 JPY range and is approaching the 158 JPY level. It has surpassed the recent high of 157.70 JPY and is aiming for 158.25 JPY. If it breaks above 158.25 JPY, there is a resistance level at 158.44 JPY. If it closes above the 158 JPY range, the 160 JPY level may come into view.

Although the Bank of Japan’s decision to reduce government bond purchases has been announced, specific plans have been postponed, leading to yen selling. Meanwhile, Governor Ueda commented that there is a possibility of a policy rate hike at the July meeting. However, it is expected that the rate hike will not be as aggressive as the market hopes, and the pressure towards yen appreciation is limited. It seems that yen selling will gradually continue.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the hourly chart of USDJPY, it continues to rise while gradually raising its lows. It repeats rising and falling, with 158.25 JPY acting as resistance. Since no significant events are scheduled, selling pressure may increase in the 158 JPY range.

The day trading strategy considers a sell entry at the high of 158.80 JPY. The target is set at 158.25 JPY, and the stop is at 159.15 JPY.

Support/Resistance lines

The support and resistance lines to consider going forward are as follows:

• 158.25 JPY: Recent high

Market Sentiment

USDJPY: Sell: 65% Buy: 35%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (USDCAD)

The U.S. Dollar to Canadian Dollar has been falling for two consecutive days. With the sharp rise in oil prices, the Canadian Dollar has become more favorable for buying. Oil prices have surged from the 72 USD range to the 80 USD range in two weeks. It has been consistently bought since the beginning of this week. As a result, the U.S. Dollar to Canadian Dollar has seen the Canadian Dollar more favorable for buying, leading to long upper wicks on the daily candlesticks. The tug-of-war between the U.S. Dollar and the Canadian Dollar continues.

Although it is difficult to determine the direction, from a broader perspective, the outlook seems bullish. We might consider buying after it falls to around 1.366 CAD.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.