Fundamental Analysis

• Awaiting the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures on the 28th, with a battle around 2330 USD
• Strong correction movement, with two recent bearish engulfing candlesticks
• 2280 USD is the neckline; breaking the neckline could lead to a significant drop

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold. Recently, two bearish engulfing candlesticks have been observed. The “bearish engulfing candlestick” on the right side of the head-and-shoulders pattern is a significant signal indicating a downtrend. Additionally, the lowering of the highs suggests increasing selling pressure.

The neckline is at 2277 USD, and if it breaks, a rapid decline to the 2100 USD range should be considered.

On the other hand, we are currently in a phase where expectations of a US interest rate cut are increasing. Normally, when expectations for a rate cut rise, gold tends to increase. This week, we await the release of US Personal Consumption Expenditures.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold. It once rebounded at 2316 USD and recovered to 2335 USD. It reversed at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and may aim to break below 2300 USD again.

If it breaks below 2328 USD, I would like to initiate a new short position. Short at 2328 USD and target around 2295 USD for settlement. If it exceeds 2335 USD, it should be considered a stop.

Support/Resistance lines

The support and resistance lines to consider in the future are as follows:

2352 USD – Recent high

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 54% Buy: 46%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (GBPCHF)

The British Pound to Swiss Franc continues to rise. Although modest, it has been rising for three consecutive days, leading to a stronger Pound. The additional rate cut by Switzerland seems to be making the Swiss Franc easier to sell. This week, the focus will be on the UK’s GDP and the Bank of England’s Financial Stability Report. No significant Swiss indicators are scheduled, so attention is likely to be on UK events.

Conversely, the Swiss Franc is expected to be bought when risk aversion movements strengthen. In the future, attention should be paid to the recent high of 1.145 Francs.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.