Gold Rises as US Economic Indicators Fall Short of Expectations【July 4, 2024】
July 04, 2024
Markets Analysis
目次
Fundamental Analysis
- US economic indicators fell short of expectations, raising expectations for a US rate cut.
- The probability of a rate cut in September is increasing.
- US President Biden is considering withdrawing, under pressure from within the Democratic Party.
XAUUSD technical analysis
Analyzing the daily chart for gold: It broke out of the downtrend line and surpassed the 28, 52, and 72-day moving averages, reaching new highs. The recent high is around 2368 USD. After bouncing off the neckline at 2280 USD and showing some indecision, the growing expectations for a US rate cut seem to have triggered dip-buying.
Be cautious as there may be sudden changes due to today’s UK general election and this weekend’s French election results. The anticipated resistance levels are 2368 USD and 2379 USD.
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20240704XAUUSDDAY-1024x773.png)
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the 1-hour chart: The trend was in a consolidation phase for a while, but it broke out upwards during yesterday’s overseas session. The RSI hit 70, showing a slight pullback.
Today’s US stock market is closed, so trading volume may be thin. Additionally, with the UK general election, the market may react sensitively. As a strategy, it’s advisable to wait and see. If expectations for a rate cut rise, it might be worth buying if the price drops below 2300 USD.
Support/Resistance lines
Here are the support and resistance levels to consider going forward:
2379 USD – Major resistance line 2368 USD – Previous high
![](https://milton-markets.s3.us-west-2.amazonaws.com/wp-content/uploads/20240704XAUUSD1H-1024x773.png)
Market Sentiment
XAUUSD: Sell: 63%, Buy: 37%
Featured Currency Pair of the Week (NZDJPY)
The New Zealand Dollar to Japanese Yen (NZDJPY) continues to rise. The 28, 52, and 72-day moving averages are widening, indicating a strong upward trend. Notably, the RSI is at 70.5, reaching an overbought level. Before it drops, there might be a rapid surge followed by a sharp decline. Be cautious of the movements.
Today’s important economic indicators
Economic indicators and events | Japan time |
US Holiday | US Stock Market Closed |
UK General Election | 19:00 |
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.