Fundamental Analysis

• Former President Trump curbs USDJPY in an interview.
• Minister Kono reportedly demands a rate hike, leading to a stronger yen.
• USDJPY hovers around the mid-155JPY range, breaking below the 90-day moving average.

USDJPY technical analysis

The long-absent Trump bombshell has echoed in the market. President Trump, in an interview, stated, “A weak yen and strong dollar is a disaster for U.S. industry,” curbing the weak yen and strong dollar. The market is conscious of Trump’s possible resurgence, leading to a sharp buyback of the yen.

The 52-day moving average has been functioning as support, but within just two days, the 90-day moving average has also been breached. The ADX suggests that the downward momentum is strengthening.

The Ichimoku cloud has been broken below, giving an impression of heavy upper resistance.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, a clear Fibonacci expansion can be drawn. The 61.8% level has been broken out downwards, indicating a chart pattern that suggests a downward movement. Fundamentally, Trump’s remarks have a significant impact.

Today’s policy is to sell on retracements. If it approaches just before 156JPY, sell. If it reaches the 154JPY range, settle. If the conversion line of the 1-hour chart is clearly surpassed, it will be stopped.

Support/Resistance lines

The following support and resistance lines should be considered in the future.

155.95JPY・・Fibonacci Expansion 61.8%

154.13JPY・・Fibonacci Expansion 100%

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 40% Buy: 60%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (EURJPY)

The EURJPY is also strongly affected by yen buying movements. Currency intervention, Minister Kono’s demand for a rate hike, and finally, the Trump bombshell. Elements making it easy to move towards yen appreciation are abundant. Speculators who have been buying dollars are taking profits and targeting long positions.

EURJPY has fallen to around 170JPY, breaking below the 52-day moving average. Today, the ECB policy rate will be announced. If there are no particularly noticeable changes, selling is expected to continue.

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.