Fundamental Analysis

• The RBA Governor Comments on Unwillingness to Hike Rates; AUD Surges
• USDJPY Rises to 147.80 JPY, with the 10-Day Moving Average Acting as Resistance

USDJPY technical analysis

Analyzing the USDJPY daily chart, USDJPY has risen from the 141 JPY level to 147.80 JPY, with a 500-pip drop and a 600-pip rise just this week. The market exhibits extremely high volatility and is highly unstable. When a strong trend is present, the 10-day moving average serves as a reference.

Whether USDJPY can break above the 10-day moving average will be one factor in determining whether this is a temporary rebound or a signal of bottoming out and rising. Although the Bank of Japan stated that it would not raise rates in the current unstable environment, there is still a possibility of a rate hike if the market stabilizes.

The yen’s appreciation trend has not reversed.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the USDJPY 1-hour chart, the 10-day moving average and the 200-day moving average are forming a golden cross. However, it is still unclear whether this is a temporary rise or a signal for an uptrend, as the 200-day moving average is not flat but trending downward.

The upper target is expected to be around 148.75 JPY. Although a temporary rise may occur, there is a high possibility of a pullback.

Entry: 148.75 JPY, Exit: Around 147 JPY where the 200-day moving average is located, Stop: 149.50 JPY.

Support/Resistance lines

Here are the support and resistance levels to consider going forward:

147.56 JPY – 10-day moving average

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Short: 47% Long: 53%

Featured Currency Pair of the Week (AUDNZD)

AUDNZD surged. The RBA Governor’s comments on willingness to hike rates led to AUD buying. As the RBNZ leans towards a rate cut, the market reacted straightforwardly to policy rate expectations. The pair is trading above the 10-day moving average, and the chart suggests further upward momentum. Attention should be paid to the fact that it has surpassed the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. The upper target is predicted to be 1.099 USD, corresponding to the 61.8% retracement.

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*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.