Fundamental Analysis

• Crude oil prices are surging, approaching 80 USD as instability in the Middle East escalates.
• Gold is also rising, nearing recent highs due to increased demand for safe-haven assets.
• USDJPY is trading around 147 JPY, with thin trading expected during the Obon holiday.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, it is trading near its high, reaching 2,476 USD. Several factors, including the growing demand for safe-haven assets due to tensions in the Middle East and increasing expectations of a U.S. rate cut, are driving the rise.
The all-time high is 2,483 USD, and gold is currently testing whether it can break above this level. The 2,500 USD milestone is also in sight. This week, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) will be released, which could be a decisive factor for a U.S. rate cut at the September FOMC. If inflation subsides, gold could surge to 2,500 USD.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart of gold, it has surged by nearly 90 USD from 2,380 USD to around 2,470 USD. With a major event two days away, a correction is expected to intensify. A drop to around 2,440 USD, corresponding to the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, is highly likely. It seems necessary to watch the CPI results to determine whether gold will rise further.
For today’s day trading, a short strategy is recommended. Consider selling around the 2,470 USD level and targeting a settlement around 2,455 USD. If yesterday’s high is exceeded and gold surpasses 2,476 USD, use it as a stop.

Support/Resistance lines

Here are the support and resistance levels to consider going forward:

2,483 USD – All-time high
2,440 USD – 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 66% Buy: 34%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.