Fundamental Analysis

• The Chairman of the U.S. Federal Reserve supports rate cuts, with many Federal Reserve Bank presidents also favoring rate adjustments.
• Gold remains in the 2500 USD range, supported by the conversion line.
• Amid the confusion in the Middle East, gold is being purchased as a safe asset.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, the metal is on an upward trend due to growing expectations of a U.S. rate cut. The conversion line of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo acts as a support line, with gold trading around 2517 USD. As it continues to move in the 2500 USD range, funds are likely to flow into gold in an environment where rate cut expectations are increasing.

Since the 2500 USD level is a significant price threshold, resistance is strong, but a gradual rise is expected. The next target for upward movement could be around 2550 USD.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Looking at the 1-hour chart, volatility is decreasing. This could be due to the summer holidays, but it may also indicate a wait-and-see approach ahead of the U.S. employment data. The Federal Reserve’s stance on rate cuts is clear, and the focus is now on the extent of the U.S. economic slowdown. The earnings report from NVIDIA, which has driven stock prices during the AI boom, along with U.S. employment data, will be key.

The day trade strategy is to buy on dips. A strong buying opportunity lies at 2480 USD, but there is also room to buy on a dip around 2505 USD. The target for selling is 2550 USD. If 2480 USD is clearly broken, consider stopping the trade.

Support/Resistance lines

The following support and resistance lines should be considered going forward:

• 2550 USD: Fibonacci Expansion 100%
• 2480 USD: Fibonacci Expansion 61.8%

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD: Sell: 61%, Buy: 39%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.