Fundamental Analysis

• US new home sales have decreased, and today, Fed Chair Powell is scheduled to speak.
• Gold is steadily rising, briefly reaching 2,670 USD.

USDJPY technical analysis

USDJPY rose to the mid-144 JPY range. This is the weakest level for the yen since early September and may be due to quarter-end position adjustments. The 28-day moving average had been acting as resistance, but yesterday’s rise broke through the 28-day MA. The pair is now approaching the 52-day MA.

Additionally, it has surpassed the upper limit of the descending channel, and 144.50 JPY is a very strong resistance area, corresponding to the 50% retracement of the recent upward trend. Therefore, even if it briefly touches the 145 JPY range, selling pressure is expected to increase.

The 52-day MA is currently hovering around 145.18 JPY.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the USDJPY hourly chart, the 28 MA has crossed above the 52 MA, forming a golden cross. The conversion line seems to be acting as support for now. However, the upside is quite heavy. If it falls below the conversion line, it could drop to the low 144 JPY range.

Moreover, with few bullish factors, it’s a tough market.

The day trading strategy is to open new sell positions when the pair reaches the 145 JPY range, aiming for a close in the low 144 JPY range. It’s a defensive trading stance, but due to the unpredictable nature of the USDJPY market at the quarter’s end, the strategy is to trade only if possible while maintaining a defensive approach.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance levels to consider moving forward are as follows:

• 145.18 JPY: 52-day moving average
• 144 JPY: 28-day moving average

Market Sentiment

USDJPY: Sell 56%, Buy 44%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.