Fundamental Analysis

• Gold has fallen for five consecutive days, pressured by rising U.S. 10-year Treasury yields.
• The stock market’s fear index has risen to around 21, with stock prices fluctuating.
• Unrest in the Middle East continues, leading to some demand for gold as a safe-haven asset.

XAUUSD technical analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for gold: gold has fallen below its recent low of 2625 USD and also below the conversion line. Funds are flowing into the U.S. dollar as U.S. 10-year Treasury yields rise, reaching levels not seen since August, creating significant selling pressure on gold.

However, the overall bullish trend is expected to remain unchanged. A small rate cut may be possible, but as long as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its rate-cutting stance, I intend to adopt a buy-the-dip strategy for gold. I would consider buying if it dips below the 2600 USD level, which is near the baseline of the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo indicator.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart for gold: the market has broken out of a range to the downside, establishing a bearish trend. While this view differs from the daily chart, from a short-term perspective on the 1-hour chart, the strategy is to sell. There is a possibility that gold will test the 2600 USD level. Currently, the conversion line is acting as resistance, and I will watch to see if there is a rebound.

The day trading strategy is to sell.
Enter a sell position at 2625 USD, with a stop if the price exceeds 2628 USD.
Take profit around the 2600 USD level.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance levels to consider are as follows:

• 2625 USD: Daily resistance line
• 2613 USD: Monthly support line

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD: Sell 49% / Buy 51%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.