USDJPY Rises to 151 Yen Level, Possibly Driven by Renewed Focus on US-Japan Interest Rate Differential【October 23, 2024】
October 23, 2024
Markets Analysis
目次
Fundamental Analysis
- USDJPY has risen to the 151 yen level, supported by the rise in the US 10-year Treasury yield, which has led to higher US interest rates.
- There has been a simultaneous rise in US interest rates and gold, which suggests a mix of risk-on and risk-off sentiment in the market.
USDJPY technical analysis
Analyzing the daily USDJPY chart, the pair has risen to 151.12 yen, nearing the 240-day moving average. While the 10-day MA is functioning as a support line, the pair may face a corrective sell-off as it approaches significant resistance.
Despite breaking above a bullish pennant, the 240-day MA could serve as a major resistance, capping further gains. On the other hand, US interest rates have surged to the 4.2% level, reaching heights not seen since late July. If USDJPY breaks above the 240-day MA, the next resistance is expected around 151.90 yen.
Day trading strategy (1 hour)
Analyzing the 1-hour USDJPY chart, we can see that the 10-day MA is serving as a support line, indicating a strong trend. Currently, the pair is hovering around the 151.12 yen level, maintaining its upward momentum.
After reaching 151 yen yesterday, the pair fell back to 150.60 yen, likely clearing some sell orders. As of this writing, the pair is making its second attempt at the 151 yen level. There is strong resistance at 151.35 yen and 151.90 yen, which suggests it could take some time to reach the 152 yen level. However, given the ongoing election trade period, making predictions is challenging.
Given the rising US interest rates, a buy-on-dip strategy is recommended. An entry point could be around 150.65 yen, with take-profit targets at 151.35 yen and 151.75 yen, and a stop-loss set below yesterday’s low at around 150.45 yen.
Support/Resistance lines
The following support and resistance levels should be considered going forward:
- 150.50 yen – Yesterday’s low
- 151.35 yen – 240-day MA
- 151.90 yen – Key historical level
Market Sentiment
USDJPY Sell: 68% Buy: 32%
Today’s important economic indicators
| Economic Indicators and Events | Japan Time |
|---|---|
| FOMC Member Bowman Speech | 22:00 |
| Bank of Canada Policy Rate | 22:45 |
| US Crude Oil Inventories | 23:30 |
| Bank of Canada Governor’s Press Conference | 23:30 |
| Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Speech | 2:00 (next day) |
| Bank of England Governor Speech | 5:30 (next day) |
*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.