Fundamental Analysis

• US Nonfarm Payrolls report showed a rise in unemployment, with new hires meeting expectations.
• ECB’s policy rate announcement is scheduled for this week, with markets already pricing in a rate cut.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EURUSD remains capped by the 28-day moving average and is trading within a range between 1.05 USD and 1.06 USD, showing no clear direction. Ahead of the ECB’s policy rate decision, market participants appear to adopt a cautious stance.

While this week’s anticipated rate cut by the ECB has already been priced in, market focus is shifting to the outlook for future rate cuts. Will the ECB pause at some point, or continue easing rates further?

Additionally, the potential for a rate cut by the FOMC could influence EURUSD. As expectations for a US rate cut rise, the USD is facing selling pressure. Psychological round numbers will likely remain significant in market movements.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the hourly chart for EURUSD:

• EURUSD is trading around 1.056 USD, below the 28-hour moving average.
• The MACD is below 0, indicating selling pressure dominance.
• However, market sentiment shows a majority of long positions, making the market challenging to interpret.

For short-term trading, consider focusing on rebounds at 1.05 USD and pullbacks at 1.06 USD. A range-trading strategy may be effective for the time being. If a breakout occurs, follow the direction of the move.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 1.06 USD – Psychological round number.
• 1.05 USD – Psychological round number.

Market Sentiment

EURUSD Sell: 29% / Buy: 71%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.