Fundamental Analysis

• Weakness in the Eurozone economy drives expectations of continued aggressive rate cuts by the ECB.
• Concerns over tariffs imposed by the Trump administration contribute to a stronger USD and a weaker EUR, forming a bearish EURUSD trend.

EURUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the EURUSD daily chart, the downtrend remains prominent. Yesterday, EURUSD touched the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands. The upcoming actions of the Trump administration, set to start later this month, add sensitivity to the market. Reports indicate that President Trump plans over 20 executive orders on his first day, expected to significantly impact the global economy. The market is adjusting to anticipate these effects.

Potential tariffs on the Eurozone are also a concern, prompting EUR selling. EURUSD is breaking new 2024 lows and may approach parity (USD = EUR).

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the EURUSD 1-hour chart, yesterday’s sharp decline pushed RSI down to 24, entering oversold territory with a slight rebound. However, upside momentum remains limited. Today’s day trading strategy suggests targeting sell opportunities on price rebounds.

Consider selling near 1.0312 USD, with a stop loss at 1.035 USD. The target for profit-taking is around 1.0225 USD.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 1.03 USD: Round number
• 1.028 USD: Fibonacci level

Market Sentiment

EURUSD: Sell: 16% / Buy: 84%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.