Fundamental Analysis

• Former President Donald Trump has hinted at implementing tariffs, causing a shift toward USD appreciation.
• Market participants are closely monitoring the upcoming FOMC announcement, which is expected to influence forex movements.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the USDJPY daily chart, the pair rebounded from the upward trendline and the Ichimoku Cloud, recovering to 155.5 JPY. Trump’s tariff-related comments contributed to USD strength.

Historically, tariff discussions tend to drive USD appreciation, while risk-averse moves are not evident in USDJPY. Instead, risk-averse sentiment is concentrated in gold. The overall trend remains downward, making it difficult to determine whether the uptrend will strengthen.

The Bank of Japan (BOJ) maintains a stance of gradual rate hikes, which may gradually reinforce JPY appreciation. The 200-day moving average remains flat, indicating a lack of clear direction.

The market is in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the FOMC announcement scheduled for early tomorrow morning.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the USDJPY 1-hour chart, the 200-hour moving average acts as a resistance level, with both upside and downside appearing heavy. Volatility remains limited due to the FOMC wait-and-see stance.

For day trading, the strategy focuses on short-term trading without placing limit orders. Buying is considered around the lower 155 JPY range, while selling aggressively above 156.35 JPY may be effective, depending on market conditions.

The market awaits the FOMC outcome.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 155.75 JPY – Downtrend line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 65% / Buy: 35%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.