Fundamental Analysis

• Tokyo CPI Falls Short of Expectations, Government Subsidy Restart May Be a Factor
• BOJ Deputy Governor’s Speech Scheduled, Market Braces for Potential Stock Declines
• US Stocks Plunge, Recession Fears Intensify

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY is trading around 149.50 JPY, with the 10-day moving average acting as resistance. The recent low stands at 148.56 JPY, confirming the continuation of the downtrend. Although Tokyo CPI came in weaker than expected, the market remains cautious ahead of the BOJ Deputy Governor’s speech, keeping USDJPY’s upside limited.

US equities have been plunging for consecutive days, and the Nikkei 225 has broken out of its range, entering a downtrend. Investors remain anxious about uncertainties in US tariff policies, leading to capital outflows and heightened caution in the markets.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Looking at the USDJPY 1-hour chart, the pair briefly touched the 150 JPY level but failed to sustain gains, repeatedly pulling back. RSI is at 48, and traders should watch for a potential break below the 90-period moving average.

As today marks the end of the month, technical analysis may lose effectiveness. The recommended strategy is selling on rallies, with the following trade setup:

• Sell Limit Order Near 150 JPY
• Take Profit in the 148 JPY Range
• Stop Loss at 150.20 JPY

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 150.15 JPY – Recent High

Market Sentiment

USDJPY – Sell: 29% / Buy: 71%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.