Fundamental Analysis

• The impact of newly imposed tariffs is spreading globally, triggering a sharp decline in stock prices and turmoil in the commodity markets.
• The forex market is showing a broad USD depreciation, with USDJPY plunging from the 149JPY range to the 145JPY range.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Let’s analyze the daily chart of USDJPY. The pair has fallen sharply from the 149JPY range. Selling pressure intensified from the Tokyo session through to the London and New York sessions, resulting in a strong JPY rally.

Tariffs higher than expected were implemented across many countries, which the markets are interpreting as a “worst-case scenario.” U.S. stock markets also plummeted, further intensifying risk-off sentiment.

USDJPY has broken below its recent low of 146.50JPY and touched the -3σ line of the Bollinger Bands. The RSI is now at 30, suggesting the possibility of a slight rebound. However, Nikkei futures also saw a significant decline during the night session, making future movements difficult to predict. The trend remains JPY bullish, but entries should be approached with caution.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, USDJPY may rebound temporarily to around 146.35JPY, but upward momentum is expected to remain limited. A sell-on-rally approach is preferred.

We aim to sell in two stages at 146.35JPY and 146.55JPY, with a take-profit target at 142.72JPY. A stop-loss should be set above 147JPY.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 146.35JPY – Psychological resistance level
• 142.72JPY – Psychological support level

Market Sentiment

USDJPY – Sell: 30% / Buy: 70%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.