Fundamental Analysis

• China has announced retaliatory tariffs, marking a serious escalation in the trade war.
• Stock indices in the US and Japan continue to plunge, with strong warnings against trying to “catch a falling knife.”

XAUUSD Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart of gold, prices have sharply declined from the all-time high of 3,167USD. Although gold had been functioning as a safe-haven asset, growing concerns over the onset of a global trade war are driving investors to shift back to cash.

Gold is approaching both the 52-day moving average and an upward trendline. The key point is whether it can rebound from these two major support zones. As the price has already broken below the base line, we are currently in a short-term correction phase. Given the unpredictable nature of tariff policies, it is crucial to remain extremely cautious and avoid trying to catch a falling knife.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, the trend is downward, and the conversion line is acting as resistance. The near-term downside target is 2,945USD. However, as market volatility increases globally—including in stock markets—standard analysis becomes ineffective.

Therefore, we prefer to wait and observe until the market stabilizes. Some rebound is expected near the 2,945USD level.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 2,950USD – A previously significant high

Market Sentiment

XAUUSD Sell: 36% / Buy: 64%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.