Fundamental Analysis

• At 1:00 PM JST on the 9th, tariffs will be applied globally.
• China shows no willingness to negotiate, resulting in a 104% tariff being imposed.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

USDJPY continues to trend towards a stronger JPY. The market has been experiencing consecutive days of high volatility and instability.
Looking at the daily RSI, it is hovering around 39. Although the price had briefly rebounded into the 148JPY range, RSI neared 50 before turning down again, indicating a high likelihood of another decline.

The key point to watch is whether USDJPY will break below its recent low.
Today, tariffs are being applied globally, and the 104% tariff rate on China is seen as “unprecedented.” However, Japanese stocks have not reacted significantly.

If the 24% tariff on Japanese goods is implemented, we may see USDJPY heading toward the 140JPY range. For now, it is best to remain observant.

Day trading strategy (1 hour)

On the 1-hour chart, the basic strategy remains selling on rebounds.
If the US-China trade war intensifies, USD weakness and risk-off sentiment are expected to lead to a stronger JPY.
However, with most of the negative news already priced in, a sharp rebound may also occur in the event of a market crash, making today’s movement difficult to predict.

It is advisable to wait and see how the situation develops in the afternoon and focus on ultra-short-term trades.

Support/Resistance lines

Key support and resistance lines to consider:

• 144.65JPY – Around the recent low
• 139.56JPY – Historical low

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 53% / Buy: 47%

Today’s important economic indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.