Fundamental Analysis

• The U.S. administration has announced a 25% tariff on smartphones manufactured outside the United States.
• The 50% tariff on EU imports has been postponed until July.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

We applied the Ichimoku Kinko Hyo to the daily chart of USDJPY.
Currently, the Chikou Span is below the candlesticks, the Tenkan-sen is below the Kijun-sen, and the price has broken below the Kumo.
As a result, a bearish “Three Bearish Signals” (San’yaku Genten) has appeared.

From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. government’s new tariff policy includes duties on Apple, one of the country’s most prominent corporations.
Relocating smartphone production facilities to the U.S. is not a realistic short-term option.
Consumers may have to accept higher prices, or Apple will have to absorb the costs—either way, it is likely to significantly impact earnings.

The sudden delay of the EU tariffs—just days after their announcement—has also added to market volatility.
Under these circumstances, investors are unlikely to aggressively buy USD.

The downtrend in USDJPY is expected to continue for the time being.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

The 1-hour chart shows USDJPY trading in the lower 142 Yen range.
The upside remains capped, and selling pressure on the USD is intensifying.
The pair is testing the recent low of 142.230 Yen, and a break below this level could trigger a sharp decline toward 141.95 Yen.

If 141.95 Yen is breached, it is highly likely that the price will aim for the 140.50 Yen support level and the daily low of 139.89 Yen.
This is a phase where initiating long positions should be avoided.

Day Trade Strategy:

Sell on rallies. If the price climbs to around 142.50 Yen, look for short opportunities.

Take profit at 140.50 Yen.

Set a stop-loss above the Tenkan-sen.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 141.50 Yen – Significant support
  
• 140.50 Yen – Daily support
  
• 139.89 Yen – Daily low
  

Market Sentiment

USDJPY

• Short positions: 35%　Long positions: 65%

Key Economic Events Today

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.