Fundamental Analysis

• Crude oil surged sharply, rising temporarily from $64 to $75
• Israel launched a preemptive strike on Iran’s nuclear facility
• The U.S. ordered the evacuation of embassy and military personnel families

Technical Analysis of Crude Oil

Crude oil prices soared, jumping from $63 to $76 in just about three days. The main driver is the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East. News of Israel’s preemptive strike on Iran has fueled fears over potential disruptions to oil supply, pushing prices higher. There is growing concern that Iran may retaliate by blocking maritime routes, and Israel has declared a state of emergency in anticipation of backlash.

Technically, prices have retreated from the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, prompting some profit-taking. A decline toward the 50% level at $71 or even the 38.2% level is possible. Geopolitical risks often lead to temporary price spikes, but it’s uncertain whether this will follow the same pattern.

A reverse head and shoulders pattern has completed at the lows, suggesting the upward momentum may gradually ease.

Technical Analysis of XAUUSD

Analysis of the daily gold chart shows that the 52-day moving average is acting as a support level, with a triangle pattern breaking upward. The 61.8% Fibonacci expansion level is being watched as resistance, around $3,450.

With the all-time high at $3,500 and the continuation triangle now broken to the upside, gold may be poised to challenge new highs—specifically near the 100% expansion level around $3,660.

Gold is a buy-on-dip candidate.

Key Economic Events Today