U.S. ADP Employment Report Posts Surprise Decline【JULY3, 2025】

July 03, 2025

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • U.S. ADP Employment Report came in at -33,000, far below expectations of +95,000
  • Attention turns to today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls for further signs of labor market weakness

EURUSD Technical Analysis

The daily chart of EUR/USD is analyzed. While the pair had been rising for eight consecutive days, signs of exhaustion are beginning to emerge. The 1.18 level appears to be a strong resistance zone. After rallying over 300 pips from the 1.15 area in late June, 86% of market sentiment is now tilted toward short positions. Caution over high price levels could lead to a pullback.

However, yesterday’s ADP report posted a surprising decline of -33,000 jobs, signaling potential economic deterioration in the U.S. If the economy continues to weaken, U.S. stock markets, which had risen on rate-cut expectations, may start to reverse lower.

A certain degree of correction is likely, but overall USD weakness may persist, allowing EUR/USD to rise further on a relative basis.

EURUSD/Daily

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

 On the 1-hour chart, the 10-period moving average is acting as a support line. A slight downtrend is forming, and there’s potential for a drop to around 1.176. If the RSI approaches 50, a buying opportunity might emerge, but given the growing number of short positions, it may be better to wait until RSI nears 30.

Today’s U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls release is a high-impact event. As volatility is expected to increase, caution is advised. The day trading stance should remain on the sidelines.

EURUSD/1H

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

  • 1.1800 – Round number resistance

Market Sentiment

USDJPY

  • 84% short / 16% long

Key Economic Events Today

Event/IndicatorTime(JPT)
U.S. Nonfarm Payrolls21:30
U.S. Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)22:45
U.S. ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI23:00

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