Fundamental Analysis

• July 9 tariff increase extension deadline approaches
• Treasury Secretary Bessent hints at possible extension
• Market exhibits strong uncertainty and lacks clear direction

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Analyzing the daily chart for USDJPY, the pair’s trading range has become extremely narrow, indicating virtually no directionality. It is trading within the Ichimoku Cloud, and volume remains low. While a summertime lull could be a factor, heightened uncertainty surrounding the Trump administration’s tariff policy appears to be a significant cause.

Currently trading around 144.50 yen, USDJPY remains range-bound near the 52-day moving average.

The U.S. administration announced plans to inform countries of their respective tariff rates by letter by July 9, and until results for major countries become clear, the market is unlikely to show a distinct directional trend. The USDJPY pair is expected to remain in a range between 142 yen and 145 yen for the time being.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the hourly chart, it can be seen that the adjustment phase after the sharp rise in USDJPY following U.S. employment data appears complete, with slight rebound near the 52-period moving average. Dip-buying is robust, suggesting traders await clarity on Trump’s tariff direction.

Determining whether tariffs will be implemented seriously or used merely as negotiating leverage remains challenging. As tariff rates affecting Japan and other major economies could be announced at any moment, maintaining long-term positions is inadvisable.

Short-term buy entries with a scalping approach appear suitable for the current situation.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 144.25 – Base Line

Market Sentiment

USDJPY

• 34% short ／ 66% long

Key Economic Events Today