Fundamental Analysis

• San Francisco Fed President mentions rate cuts
• U.S. jobless claims come in below expectations
• FOMC minutes show most members oppose early rate cuts

EURUSD Technical Analysis

EUR/USD is hovering around the 1.17 level. Until last week, it had been hitting new highs daily, but that upward momentum has paused, and a corrective movement is underway.

Last night, a rebound occurred from the low 1.16s after the San Francisco Fed President commented on potential rate cuts, forming a lower shadow.

The market is currently focusing on whether EUR/USD can hold above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension level, which stands at 1.1682.
The Alligator lines are slightly narrowing, suggesting trend convergence.

It remains to be seen whether this is merely a temporary correction. As tariff measures have effectively been delayed, some renewed dollar buying is expected.

Day Trading Strategy (1-Hour Chart)

Analyzing the 1-hour chart, EUR/USD dropped to 1.1662 but then rebounded sharply. U.S. jobless claims were lower than expected, reducing expectations of a Fed rate cut. Overall, the market appears to have returned to a range-bound pattern.

For day trading, consider selling around 1.1750. With the range-bound trend in mind, take profit at 1.17 and set a stop-loss at 1.18.

Support and Resistance Levels

Support and resistance levels to watch going forward:

• 1.17 – Round number
• 1.1682 – Fibonacci level

Market Sentiment

EURUSD

• 61% short ／ 39% long

Key Economic Events Today