Gold is About to Break Out! Let’s Predict the Next Move【JULY18,2025】

July 18, 2025

Markets Analysis

Gold Market Overview (Swing Trade Strategy)

Let’s assess today’s gold market conditions.
Key points of the market environment:

  • The Dollar Index has risen for two consecutive weeks; the strong dollar trend continues
  • A downward trendline is forming
  • Volatility has sharply declined over the past few weeks

Looking at the weekly chart, gold had been on a consistent uptrend since around October 2023, peaking near $3,500 before the momentum began to fade.
The rally was intense, and there was little major correction on the weekly scale.

However, recently gold’s volatility has decreased significantly, and a triangle pattern is forming with lower highs and higher lows.

On the daily chart, the Alligator indicator shows that the “mouth is closed” — a sleeping alligator.
Just like a hungry alligator eventually opens its mouth wide, the market may also be poised for a big move soon.

If a breakout occurs to the upside, $3,500 could be the target.
If it breaks to the downside, around $3,250 may become the focus.

XAUUSD/DAY

XAUUSD Day Trading Strategy

Gold is in a downward bias, capped by a trendline.

Fractals appear near this trendline, suggesting that past resistance has led to pullbacks.
Although the downtrend is modest, strong dip buying prevents a decisive trend from forming.

As a day trade strategy, consider placing a buy limit order around the $3,300 level.

If the trendline is clearly broken to the upside, it may signal a new trend — and we should follow it.

With few clear fundamental drivers, gold is likely to continue searching for direction.
Let’s watch for a technical breakout and remain patient for now.

XAUUSD/1H

Key Economic Events Today

Event/IndicatorTime(JPT)
US – Housing Starts21:30
US – University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index23:00

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