Cross Yen rises steadily; talks on U.S. debt ceiling to take place【May 23, 2023】

May 23, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Dow Jones Industrial Average falls, Nasdaq rises
  • Debt Ceiling Negotiations Approaching a Pit Stop as President Biden and House Speaker Meet
  • Dollar Straight Currency Pairs Remain in Modest Ranges with Little Volatility
  • Markets take a wait-and-see attitude as debt ceiling negotiations are assessed

Technical Analysis

Cross-Yen currency pairs have continued to rise. The yen has weakened across the board, and the cross yen is rising steadily, especially the Swiss franc-yen (CHFJPY), which is higher and has been rising for 8 consecutive days. The dollar is on an upward trend, and it will be interesting to see if it can break into the JPY 138.80 level. Dollar straight currency pairs are hardly moving as the U.S. dollar is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Australian Dollar Yen (AUDJPY)

Analysis of the daily chart of the AUDJPY shows that the pair has been moving above its 240-day moving average. The 240-day moving average has been retreated at least twice and is being considered. It will be interesting to see if the 240-day moving average will function as a support line in the future.

The RSI is at 58, suggesting a solid upward trend. We expect the yen to rise easily as the yen has weakened across the board. We would like to see the 240-day moving average acting as a support line before pushing the price higher.

Estimated rangeJPY 91.24 – JPY 92.68
Resistance lineJPY 92.57
Support lineJPY 91.68

Dollar-Yen (USDJPY)

The direction of the dollar/yen will change depending on the outcome of the U.S. debt ceiling negotiations. Since default is expected to be avoided, push-buying may be the way to go, but nothing can be said at this stage. Looking at the chart shape, we can confirm that the price is above 137.770, which is functioning as a support band, so we think the probability of a move higher is high.

We expect the near-term upside target to be JPY 139.63.

Estimated rangeJPY 137.46 – JPY 139.63
Resistance lineJPY 138.10
Support lineJPY 137.77

Pound Sterling Yen (GBPJPY)

Analyzing the daily chart of GBPJPY. A major uptrend has formed and the downside is getting firmer. Pound Yen has broken above the large range that was formed in 2022 and is now in a trending market. The upside forecast is JPY 178 yen; if it reaches JPY yen, we expect an adjustment to occur and form the next range market with a length of about one year.

Estimated rangeJPY 170.95 – JPY 173.65
Resistance lineJPY 172.98
Support lineJPY 171.62

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
General PMI17:30
Meter Construction Permits21:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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