Markets Analysis

USDJPY nearing 140 level, default risk gradually increasing【May 26, 2023】

May 26, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Nasdaq up sharply; AI in the spotlight, NVIDIA soars
  • No progress in U.S. debt ceiling negotiations, gradually building unease in the market
  • Expectations of a halt in U.S. interest rate hikes receded, and U.S. GDP ended on a positive note
  • Crude oil sharply lower, Russian officials commented that additional production cuts are unlikely
  • Gold sharply lower, falls below USD 1950, affected by strong dollar

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The dollar-yen has reached the JPY 140 level for the first time since last November, forming an uptrend. The main factor of fluctuation is the strong dollar, and as with other straight dollar currency pairs, the dollar is more likely to be bought than the yen.

There are several large resistance zones in the JPY 140 level, and with today being the weekend, profit-taking selling could be seen. In particular, the 140.40-140.70 area is a very large resistance zone and we expect it to be difficult to cross in one go.

Day Trading Strategy (H1)

The day trading policy is to buy on the push. Today, there is a possibility of a pullback near JPY 140.40, so be careful if you are holding positions. There is a possibility of a rebound around the pivot point at JPY 139.70.

Bollinger Bands

The Bollinger Bands confirm that the market is in a gradual uptrend, reaching a high of 140.227. Since the recent high of 139.70 has been exceeded, understood that the uptrend according to the Dow Theory is still ongoing.

Fibonacci

Drawing the Fibonacci Expansion, the price corresponding to 61.8% is located near JPY 140.10, which is a resistance zone.
JPY 140.10 will be exceeded if given time. It may adjust once, but given the strength of the trend, we expect it to be breached by London time. The real focus will be around JPY 140.65, which corresponds to the 100% price.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

JPY 140.40 – Monthly resistance line
JPY 140.10 – Fibonacci (61.8%)

[USDJPY / H1]

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 73% Buy: 27%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
Australian Retail Sales10:30
U.S. University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index23:00

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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