Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

• U.S. stock indexes rebound; NASDAQ up 1.2
• U.K. policy rate hikes 0.5%, policy rate changed to 5.0
• Swiss central bank decides to raise interest rate by 0.25%, policy rate changed to 1.75
• Norway and Turkey also decided to raise interest rates, while the JPY weakened across the board in the currency markets
• Gold breaks below the range, reaching USD 1,913 at one point, as expected.

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The USDJPY rallied clearly above the important milestone of JPY 142.25. In the 2022 market, the price rose to JPY 144.99 after crossing JPY 142, and again, caution is needed for a run into the JPY 145 level. On a daily basis, there is no clear resistance zone between the JPY 143 and JPY 144 level. With the Fed announcing two interest rate hikes this year and the BOJ continuing its massive easing program, the interest rate differential has made the USDJPY fundamentally more buyable.

Day Trading Strategy (Hourly)

The day-trade policy is to buy at the push. We understand that the Bollinger Band is expanding and has risen rapidly; it is clearly above 61.8%, and we expect the target price to be around JPY 143.60 in the future. On the other hand, analysis of the RSI shows that the value has reached 70, and profit-taking selling is likely to occur due to the weekend. In addition, next week falls on the end of the corporate quarter, so investors should be wary of actual demand.

As a day trade policy, we would like to pull back sufficiently to around JPY 142.35 and buy at the push. If the price breaks below JPY 142.00, we want to stop and take profits by JPY 143.15. We do not plan to hold positions over the weekend.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

143.60 JPY – corresponds to 100% of expansion
142.69 JPY – 61.8% of expansion
142.25 JPY – the return high of November last year

Market Sentiment

USDJPY　Sell: 74% Buy: 26%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.