Markets Analysis

USDJPY tries 145 again; BOJ Tankan survey improves for the first time in 7 quarters【July 4, 2023】

July 04, 2023

Markets Analysis

Fundamental Analysis

  • Nikkei 225 rises steadily; Bank of Japan’s Tankan survey of business sentiment among major companies improves
  • U.S. stock market rises, stock market closed today for Independence Day
  • The JPY is slightly stronger and the dollar is weaker, with a push to the JPY 143 level likely
  • Australian policy rate in focus, market forecast is for a 0.25% hike

USDJPY Technical Analysis

The dollar tried but failed again to reach JPY 145, falling back just ahead of JPY 145 and hovering around JPY 144.60. With the U.S. employment data ahead, the market is becoming more cautious, and few traders seem to be aggressively buying.

Trading volume is also expected to be low today as the U.S. stock market is closed for Independence Day. Therefore, the market will probably end up trading in a range. We expect the basic range to be JPY 144.15 to JPY 144.90.

Day Trade Strategy (Hourly)

Our day-trade policy for the USDJPY is to buy at the push. With the release of important indicators including the U.S. employment data coming up later in the week, we believe that today’s trading will be range-bound. Analyzing the 1-hour time frame of the USDJPY, strong buy orders are in place at the JPY 143 level and long whiskers are appearing. We would like to set up a short-term buy near JPY 143.90 at the first level and near JPY 143.60, which is the Fibonacci level, at the second level.

Support and Resistance Lines

The resistance line to be considered in the future is as follows

144.48 JPY – Pivot point
144.15 JPY – Major support zone

[USDJPY / H1]

Market Sentiment

USDJPY Sell: 73% Buy: 27%

Today’s Important Economic Indicators

Economic Indicators and EventsJST (Japan Standard Time)
U.S. Stock Market Closed
Australian policy rate announcement13:30

*Trading advice in this article is not provided by Milton Markets, but by Shu Fujiyasu Jr., a certified technical analyst.

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